Technology Assessment and Forecasting

Futurology

As we come to the end of the syllabus, it is only apt that we end it with the topic looking forward. Reading 2 was about futurology, a science used to predict and forecast the potential developments in products or any field of science. The writer explains that it uses the forces shaping the present and expects how these similar forces can affect the future as well. It is strongly emphasized futurology is a like look into the crystal ball to see a vague picture but not a definite one. From the vague picture painted, we can then take precautions to prepare. Despite all these, there is still a probability of the future turning out not quite how we want it. As we see through history, the advancements of technology is never within our actual grasp. One reason i can think of is we venturing further despite knowing the potential repercussions as we learnt in the earlier lessons. However, in this reading, a particular interesting point was how science fiction was a part of this futurology science. Science fiction material may not be real at the point it was written but that was because of the limited technology of the age writers were living in. On the country, their ideas could be very real. The writer cited Jule Vern's "From the Earth to the Moon"as a possible inspiration for scientists to make space travel a reality. The same applied to George Orwell's "Animal Farm" where it explored the range of social options. We should not dismiss all science fiction as wishful thinking. To summarized it, I think the writer was trying to put across the point that there is actually such a field in science where scientific methods are used to forecast the future to the furthest extent possible.

The need to predict the future

Throughout history, we saw how man are always dreaming and thinking beyond the boundaries set by the age they lived in. In the Qin empire, emperor Qin shihuang was always looking for the elixir of life because of his fear of death. Man has this fear over the unpredictable, we have to be in control of everything. But at times, man also take unethical measures to ensure their future turns out the way they want it to.

If there's one thing i learnt from these weeks of TWC, that would have to be the need to do everything with utmost considerations. Be it nanotechnology, augmented reality or biotechnology, we have to take a cautious approach for every advanced step we make it. It may be a cowardly mentality and it is always more liberal or fun to jump into the unknown. But we man know better than anything how many times we have suffered the consequences of jumping into the unknown. When we discovered crude oil, we did not expect such a widespread use for it and most importantly the pollution and destruction arising from it as well. So before we mass produce nano materials or any new sources of biotech, we have to dream with a pinch of salt and not let these dreams get the better of us. We are advancing faster than we have ever before, inventions are coming out faster than we can acknowledge them. We are in a learning age where information is coming thick and fast towards us. It is time we take a step back and see how far the actual displacement these new technologies take us before we have to reverse and clean up any mess again.